The Western US Is in a Snow Drought. What Comes Next Is Even Scarier

The mountains of the western United States are looking remarkably brown this winter. The region is facing one of its worst snow droughts in decades, and while the snowsport industry is already feeling the effects, the impacts this summer could be far worse.

Although much of the region received plenty of precipitation in fall and early winter, most of it fell as rain due to unusually warm temperatures. Then, a lengthy dry spell took hold in January, which certainly didn’t help. The lack of snow isn’t just bad news for skiers and snowboarders—it’s also a major concern for the West’s water supply, which is far more reliant on a healthy snowpack than rainfall.

These conditions could therefore set the stage for a summer of severe water scarcity, potentially exacerbating an already dire situation in the Colorado River Basin and heightening wildfire risk across the region.

With only a trace of snow observed in January, many cities across the US received more snow than Salt Lake City, even as far south as the Florida Panhandle. Check out the map below to see some select cities that received a trace or more of snowfall in January 2026. #utwx pic.twitter.com/F238AM38mO

— NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) February 2, 2026

Mountain snowpack is the American West’s primary water resource. While rain tends to run off before it can recharge reservoirs and aquifers, springtime snowmelt produces a more metered, sustained water supply. In fact, up to 75% of the region’s freshwater comes from snowmelt.

As global temperatures rise, this critical resource is dwindling. Research has shown a direct link between human-driven climate change and snow loss across the Northern Hemisphere. In the western U.S., snowpack declined nearly 20% on average between 1955 and 2020, according to an analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency.

What snowpack remains is consistently melting much quicker and earlier than it used to, which is a problem in itself. This leaves less water available during the driest weeks of summer, when the risk of drought and wildfire is highest.

This winter is a textbook example of how climate change is reshaping winter in the West. The latest snow drought update from Drought.gov states that snow cover across the West on January 4 was the lowest on record for that date since 2001.

Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are seeing the most severe deficits, but the snow drought also extends to Alaska, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Wyoming.

Snowpack, drought, and wildfire are all interconnected. Reduced snowpack and rapid, early melt-outs increase the risk of drought, which in turn increases the risk of wildfire as the landscape dries out.

“When we have very large snowpack years, like 2023 in the Sierra Nevada, there is less risk of fire, especially earlier in the summer season,” Dan McEvoy, a climatologist at the Desert Research Institute’s Western Regional Climate Center, explained during an interview in September.

“But then we look at years like 2021, 2022 and 2020, which are all drought years, and very active wildfire years,” he said. “Those are years with less snowpack that melted out earlier. So there definitely is that connection between wildfire danger and the amount of snow that’s on the ground.”

Still, how this snow drought will shape summer conditions remains to be seen. National Weather Service hydrologist Aldis Strautins told Colorado Politics that hydrologists will have a better idea of the snowpack’s impact on water in mid-February and early March.

Rocco Snart, the fire planning branch chief for Colorado’s Division of Fire Prevention and Control, is also waiting to see if conditions shift. “If this weather exists [in the spring] and doesn’t transition into something more favorable, it could be extremely problematic for us,” he told Colorado Politics.

The next few months will be critical as emergency managers size up what could be a particularly dangerous dry season. As the world warms, snow droughts like this one are becoming less of an anomaly and more so a defining feature of the West’s rapidly changing climate.